CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-18T11:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21261/-1
CME Note: The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T17:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T23:42Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 39.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.16667 - 5.14286
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -20907.53 hour(s)
Difference: -6.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy